Grynspan (UNCTAD): The current increase in no-fly trade and undermine the socio-economic recovery

In the latest report "Review of Maritime Transport 2021" published today by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development specifies that the recovery of the world economy is threatened by high maritime transport tariffs, which - specifies the document - will continue to be high even in the coming months. In particular, the analysis shows that if the current increase in freight for containerised maritime transport will be maintained, this by 2023 could lead to a +11% growth in the price level of world imports and an increase of +1.5% in consumer price levels.

UNCTAD also considers that the considerable increase in costs of maritime shipments will not only affect the exports and imports, but it could also undermine the recovery of the global manufacturing sector. The report highlights that the High value of customs is already having an impact on global supply chain: Europe, for example - notes UNCTAD - has had to cope with shortages of consumer goods imported from Asia, such as furniture, bicycles, sporting goods and toys. According to the report, the increase in freight of containerized shipping will cause an increase in production costs, ending up raising consumer prices and slowing down economies, especially those of small island developing states, and of the least developed countries where consumption and production depend on much of it from trade.

In addition, the impact of the high value of sea freight does not will be distributed evenly and also within the Europe itself will generally be greater among the more Small. In particular, prices are expected to rise by +3.7% in Estonia and +3.9% in Lithuania compared to +1.2% in United States and +1.4% in China.

The report specifies that, however, to make the expenses of the exponential increase in the number of no-ies will also be the producers U.S. who rely primarily on supplies industrialists of China and other East Asian economies, with resulting in continued cost pressures, interruptions and delays of container shipments that will hinder production. Yes foresees, in fact, that an increase of + 10% of transport freight containerized maritime, along with the occurrence of interruptions of the supply chain, will reduce industrial production in the US and in the euro area by more than -1%, while in China production should decrease by -0.2%.

Commenting on the results of the UNCTAD analysis, Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General of the UN body, went straight to the point: "the current increase in no-road transport - he underlined - will have a profound impact on trade and undermine the socio-economic recovery, especially in developing countries, until maritime transport operations return to normality. Returning to normal - clarified Grynspan - would entail the need to invest in new solutions, including infrastructure, transport technologies of goods, digitalisation and measures to facilitate trade'.

UNCTAD does not propose specific recipes to solve the situation, limiting itself to urging governments to monitor markets to ensure fair, transparent and competitive trade, recommending that more data be shared and that the collaboration between the parts of the maritime supply chain. Invites in addition, nations to consider a number of measures covering both tangible and tangible infrastructures intangible, including improving the quality of port infrastructure that would reduce the total average costs of transport of -4.1%, the adoption of measures to facilitate trades that would reduce costs by -3.7% and the improvement of the connectivity of liner maritime transport that would decrease costs by -4.4%.

About the exorbitant increase in maritime freight, the of the United Nations body observes that "in the face of these cost pressures and the lasting disruptions of the market, it is increasingly important to monitor the market behaviour and ensuring the transparency of customs, taxes and soprannoli'.

The publication "Review of Maritime Transport 2021" also focuses on the direct impact that the Covid-19 pandemic had on maritime transport, noting that in 2020 such the effect was less severe than initially expected, but specifying that the side effects will be far-reaching and could lead to a transformation of maritime transport. The document explains that, initially, last year trade for by sea they were reduced by -3.8%, while subsequently have resumed and are currently scheduled for 2021 their increase of +4.3%. In the report, UNCTAD specifies that, however, the pandemic has highlighted and amplified the existing problems in the maritime sector, in particular labour shortages and infrastructural needs. In particular, it is manifested concern about the crisis of the change of crews of ships caused by the health crisis.